The 'If' Scenario: A US-Iran Proxy War in Bahrain

Sat, 19 Mar 2011

From Tahrir Square to Pearl Square, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been rocked by protests in recent months.

Yet while many commentators are summoning wonderful images of liberated masses shaking the tree of tyranny and watching all the bad apples fall from their perch, the reality and its ramifications are very different and far more complex. Nowhere more so than in Bahrain. This is one revolt that could potentially destabilise the entire region, rattle oil markets worldwide and draw the West into a war with nuclear Iran.

On Monday the 14th of March, a contingent of 1,000 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) troops marched into Bahrain. The tiny island Kingdom is on course to be the battleground for a wider regional war. Bahrain, with a majority Shia population, is ruled by Sunni King Sheikh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifah and the royal family. The conflict is the latest in a long battle between Shia and Sunni sects. According to numerous news feeds opposition leaders have called the arrival of foreign troops an act of war, equating to occupation. These echo rallying calls from Iran which has long backed Bahrain’s Shia population.

Saudi Arabia has been drawn into the uprising through fears of its own stability. On the 10th of March Shia protests occurred in the Qatif province on the Persian Gulf that holds a major Saudi oil port.

The UAE, currently holding the chair of the GCC, has noted the entry of the GCC’s Peninsula Shield Forces in Bahrain is solely to aid the member state and maintain stability. However, it may have the undesired effect of provoking further tensions if violence escalates.

The volatility of the present situation has wider implications on energy security in the world’s oil basin. Markets have responded warily. Japan’s need to increase imports of oil to counterbalance the loss of its nuclear generated power capacity, unrest in Libya, in addition to instability in the Gulf, will likely push oil prices to the highest levels since the last oil crisis.

The 1981 creation of the predominantly Sunni GCC, heavily backed by the US, has long been part of the strategy to contain Shia Iran. With the US fifth fleet and key military bases in the island Kingdom, Bahrain will prove to be the next frontier, and possibly the most important battle.

The GCC & the US Led Anti-Iran Alliance

Region building as a means of conflict resolution and prevention has been something of an anomaly over the past century of foreign relations. Since time immemorial, alliances have been forged between states yet the growth of regional organisations as seen from Europe to Asia has added a new level to the framework of international relations. Ties binding the organisations have been drawn along the lines of religion, political ideology, ethnicity and geographical dominance amongst others. By far the most positive and successful formation in the democratic world of the past century has been the emergence of the European Union. The European Coal and Steel Community, the precursor to the European Union, was buoyed by the support of the US through the Marshall Plan. The Plan was designed to bolster the war ravaged European states and prevent the expansion of Soviet communist influence. The support of the Plan to European states and of the influence within the establishment of the European Community was significant.

A similar project was established in the Gulf three decades later. The US support of the project was, once again, significant. On the backdrop of the OPEC oil crisis of the 1970s and the bloody mechanisation of war between Iran and Iraq, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was established in 1981. With its six members, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait, its stated purpose was ‘coordination, cooperation and integration’.

Implicitly it was charged firstly to secure US and global oil supplies, support US-backed Iraq in victory and counter influence against Iran’s influence over the Persian Gulf. Indeed, just as the US acknowledged the value of a cohesive European regional body to counter Soviet influence, so they saw the benefit in binding the predominantly Sunni states of the Gulf toward greater cooperation. The growth of these states wealth and influence has grown significantly since then. Indeed, today the GCC holds the highest per capita GDP of any regional organisation of 1.2 trillion USD. Greater progress toward a Gulf Monetary Union continues to take place. A customs union was established in 2003 with zero tariffs between the goods of member states and a single common external tariff. The organisational structure of the GCC is almost identical to that of the EU and progress toward similar goals of integration, were, over the past decade, proving a stabilising force in the region.

A US-Iran Proxy War

US fears of instability in the region led to the signing of a host of defence and free trade agreements with Gulf states. In 1991 Bahrain signed a defence cooperation agreement with the US and was part of the US-led coalition in "Operation Desert Storm" in Iraq.

The agreement established joint military exercises and provided the US port facilities in Bahrain. In 2004 they signed an FTA with the US. This has long been part of a US push to contain Iranian influence through an alliance among the Gulf states, in place of direct US confrontation with the Iran.

While the US continues to fret over Iran’s obtaining a nuclear weapon, Gulf nations, particularly the smaller states such as The Sultanate of Oman continue to hold amicable relations with both Iran and the US. However, in addition to religious fuelled animosity, two events last year persist against the assumption that Gulf states will cave to pressure from Iran. The first was the 2010 signing of defence contracts totalling 20 billion USD between the US and Saudi Arabia. Secondly, last year’s freezing of bank accounts and transactions between the UAE and Iran further demonstrates the strong resolve of certain Gulf states. The balancing act between the US, GCC and Iran will continue and may solidify relations between Gulf states further binding them together. What is clear is that current events in Bahrain will test the GCC’s resolve to fight what in many respects is a proxy war between the US and Iran.

If the US and GCC countries cannot successfully navigate the Shia uprising in Bahrain by appeasing both sides and the Iranian position becomes more active rather than rhetorical, these clashes may spell the beginning of yet another Gulf war.

by Elliot Brennan