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Main Content
An Asian Geopolitical Game of Risk
The US military, diplomatic and political strategies in Asia show a new approach to the continent
In Honolulu in November 2011, the United States held the Asia-Pacific Countries Meet for the first time since Bill Clinton's presidency. Barack Obama took advantage of the rendez-vous to kick-off a new era of American foreign policy focused on the region. Obama's intention is to move the target of national interest from the Middle East to Far East Asia through a policy of progressive disengagement in the areas of recent military and diplomatic activity, such as Iraq and Afghanistan. This switch in foreign policy closely preceded the announcement of the death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il and the beginning of the Strait of Hormuz crisis with Iran. These two events might appear unrelated to one another and with the beginning of the new era of American foreign policy in Asia, but in reality both play a major role in the shaping of the Obama administration's strategies on the continent.
When in December 2011 the US announced new economic sanctions against Iran and its nuclear plans, Ahmadinejad responded by threatening the closure of maritime transits through the Strait of Hormuz, provoking an immediate reaction of fear and concern all over the world. According to the US Department of Energy, the Strait of Hormuz channels around 17bn oil barrels, corresponding to 20% of the world's daily demand. A couple of days later, North Korea announced the death of its 'dear leader' Kim Jong-il and the coronation of his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as the new head of state. China, as usual, was the only interlocutor during this transitional phase and the first country to be visited by the South Korean president, Lee Myung-bak, in his talks on the peace process along the 38th parallel, thereby strengthening its central role in East Asian events.
As a result, the US was suddenly caught in the middle of two diplomatic – potentially military – conflicts. Obama had to deal with the delicate Iranian case, balancing his relatively conciliatory approach with the more aggressive strategy set by Israel, which according to American media is aiming to set a preventive attack to Tehran. The American administration also had to start worrying about the growing role of China in the Asia-Pacific region, with particular regards to the Korean peninsula and the south-east of the continent.
Barack Obama opted for a double-face strategy. The Iranian file is treated with some apparent detachment. The US seems to have left Israel as the lead of the operation, confirming their total support for Tel Aviv, but denying any allegations of its intention to strike Tehran, thus confirming the progressive disengagement of Washington in the Middle East. Rumours are circling that the Pentagon is designing a strategy to be implemented after the potential Israeli attack, but no move will be made until the Security Council of the United Nations says more on the issue.
The American approach to the growing role of China in East Asia has been much more aggressive, at least in this initial phase. China, which overtook Japan as the world's second-largest economy in 2010, has been pursuing a military build-up and modernisation. It has strengthened territorial claims in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, causing friction with neighbouring countries that are calling for Washington's help. Obama had already responded to his allies in November by announcing a massive deployment of 2,500 marines in Northern Australia - a move that would give the Pentagon easier access to the South China Sea.
“I made a deliberate and strategic decision: as a Pacific nation, the United States will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future”, Obama said in a speech delivered at the Australian Parliament in November 2011, addressing a direct message to Beijing. Meanwhile, in her essay - America's Pacific Century – Secretary of State Hilary Clinton highlighted how “[US] economic recovery [...] will depend on exports and the ability of American firms to tap into the vast and growing consumer base of Asia”. Clinton emphasised how crucial and strategic maintaining peace and security across Asia-Pacific is for the American interest.
The problem is that American orientation towards the political, diplomatic and economic evolution of Asia-Pacific clashes with the interests of the newly rising world superpower - China. Thus far, the tension between Beijing and Washington has remained low thanks to the relatively mellow approach to the issue from both Barack Obama and Hu Jintao. However, the 'cold war' that has recently exploded between China and the US might rapidly evolve into an armed conflict in the area with unpredictable effects on the whole world, which is still keeping a worried eye on the evolution of the Israeli-Iranian dispute.
The development of the events cannot be easily foreseen. Much will depend on the outcome of the incoming US presidential election next November. With Barack Obama at the White House, diplomacy and common sense shall prevail, but if Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich - both traditionally in favour of military intervention in foreign policy - take over in the Oval Office, the scenario can change dramatically.