Survey Analysis
Work in a Downturn
Depression fears loom in the euro zone as unemployment figures reach record highs
Newsies in the 21st Century
Internet-based news has gone leaps and bounds from its modest routes, but have citizens made the full switch?
Getting Women into the Boardroom
It is no secret that men outnumber women in the boardroom, but is there room for change?
Meat or Veg?
Main Content
Big Money vs Big Ideas
Republicans have to make a choice between Romney’s moderate politics and Gingrich’s extravagant idea
Florida is the first big state that will choose its candidate for the general election. Victories in the first three states – Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – were divided between Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. The fourth candidate Ron Paul has yet to win a state nomination.
According to the preliminary polls, with 41% Romney has a lead over Gingrich, who has 33% in Florida. Santorum and Paul lag behind by 13% and 5% ratings respectively. If Romney wins the Florida primary, he will significantly strengthen the position for the Republican National Convention in August that will announce the candidate who will run against Obama in November. Florida is the biggest swing state and its large and diverse population fairly well represents almost all demographic groups in the USA. Thus, the victory in this primary will prove Romney credible to represent the Republican Party in the presidential election.
Winning in Florida for Romney is a way to assert his leadership, but for Gingrich it is merely a chance to stay in the race. He seems to be losing his momentum after the strong performance in South Carolina. His “Moon station” idea, although very popular among stand-up comedians, did not win the hearts and minds of ordinary citizens, who happen to have more earthly concerns, such as unemployment and taxes. His Berlusconeqsue love affairs, particularly after a recent accusation that he was asking his wife for an open marriage, negatively affect his popularity among the American social conservatives, who value the idea of family integrity and view it as a basis of a state.
The Latino factor also plays against Gingrich in Florida: his political style and “Take back America” vision appeals to the middle-class white Americans, who are Tea Party commoners. This vision naturally is not popular among Hispanic Americans who wish the USA to be shared by different racial groups, not dominated by Anglosajones only. This might be a reason for Romney’s substantially higher rating among Floridian Latinos - 35% of them support Romney, while only 20% supports Gingrich - even though, until now Romney had much tougher position on immigration than Gingrich.
Post-Floridum
Despite the Romney-Gingrich leadership in Florida polls with a significant margin, the other two candidates should not be forgotten. Santorum is a clear favourite of social conservatives especially after Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry quit their campaigns. Among the current candidates, he has the most consistent right-wing agenda: he supports less government in economy, he is a firm and famous opponent of gay rights and abortion (even in case of rape), and he is for the US-Mexico border fence and active foreign policy. Although he may be in the shadow right now, he can get back on track and grab some surprise victories in the southern and middle Bible Belt states, where voters highly value candidates’ religious credentials.
Ron Paul, who is the face of the libertarian wing of the Republican Party and is strongly supported by the Tea Party, has a major flaw in the minds of American conservatives: foreign policy. Isolationism, whose fierce apologist is Ron Paul, does not fit to the ideal conservative vision of the US foreign policy. The Moon colonization does, but not isolationism. What might be a shortcoming for the Republican electorate, may become an advantage for others: the idea to reduce the US military abroad as much as possible to save up for the budget, appeals to the young libertarians in the Republican Party and pacifist liberals outside of it. Based on this, Paul can have a better chance to win the final presidential election than the Republican race. For this reason, it might be possible that Paul will run as an independent candidate in November.
So far the Republican race is mainly dominated by Romney and Gingrich. It is sort of a class competition: Romney is supported by the party establishment and Wall Street businessmen. He himself is the richest among the candidates. Gingrich has a backing of middle-class America and often tries to capitalize on the criticism of the establishment.
It is also about geography: in the north-east Romney has no rival, where he won the New Hampshire nomination without much trouble; Gingrich has more supporters in the poorer south, where he achieved a victory in South Carolina with a large margin.
Finally, it is about political style: Romney is a moderate by which he tries to look as an electable candidate in the wider strata of the society. On the other hand, his moderate stance does not make him a favourite candidate among the religious conservatives of the Republican Party.
Gingrich calls himself “a bold Raegan conservative” or “a big choice” candidate who “has an uncanny ability to feel your pain and know his audience and speak to his audience and fire them up”. However, his big but often inconsistent ideas, erratic and undisciplined character, make him less favourable among most of the top members of the Republican Party.
Florida primary will change many things: Romney’s win can transform the Republican primaries into a one-man race. Gingrich’s win might create another big momentum for him and undermine Romney’s strong position. If he capitalizes on that during the coming February candidates, he can marginalize Romney and win several big endorsements from the Party establishment as well. This can ultimately change the party’s focus from the Big Money to the Big Ideas candidate.